Analysis and forecast of the future development of China's photovoltaic industry

1. The key factors for the policy market to determine the photovoltaic installed capacity According to foreign experience, national policy guidance and even mandatory regulations are the key to whether photovoltaic installed capacity can be applied on a large scale in this stock. The subsidy policies of various countries are mainly divided into two categories: one is the investment subsidy law, and the other is the Internet subsidy law. The investment subsidy method increases fiscal expenditure, thereby increasing the burden on taxpayers. Third, this method is inconvenient to implement. The feed-in tariff method makes photovoltaic subsidies borne by consumers of electric utilities, and pays more attention to the actual effect of photovoltaic power generation, but increases the management burden. In addition, the investment subsidy method mainly focuses on the installation capacity of equipment, ignoring the actual operation of the equipment, while the feed-in tariff method more effectively promotes the actual use of photovoltaic equipment. 2. China will become an important engine for the world's solar energy industry. The main investors of China's photovoltaic industry are often municipal government departments and large monopoly groups. The subsidies are divided into two parts according to the source of funds. One is the financial subsidy project of the Ministry of Finance. The subsidy method is a one-time subsidy when the installation is approved after the application is approved. The second is the renewable energy additional support project. The subsidy method is bidding, and then the photovoltaic benchmark electricity price is used. China's photovoltaic market oil is composed of the Golden Sun Project supported by the Ministry of Finance, the photovoltaic building-integrated market, and the benchmark electricity price market supported by additional renewable energy. The two markets are basically independent of each other. 3. In 2013, the photovoltaic market resumed quantitative growth. The decline in the cost of photovoltaic products, the increase in the replacement rate, and the intensification of competition led to a decline in the cost of photovoltaic subsidies. Therefore, from a global perspective, there is no risk of a substantial decline in the photovoltaic market of a certain country. The photovoltaic market in Germany and Spain is close to the upper limit of government subsidies, and it is expected that it will be difficult to improve within two years. In contrast, the United States, Japan, and China are still far from the upper limit of photovoltaic subsidies, and the government has a positive attitude, and the photovoltaic market is expected to increase significantly this year. 4. Technological progress replaces capacity expansion as the key In the past few years, there has been a large gap between the supply and demand of photovoltaic products, and capacity expansion is the strategic focus of various companies. But with current functionality changing, cost reduction and efficiency improvements through technological Ru0026D advancements are key. By 2013, the cost per unit of watt-hour installed capacity has dropped significantly compared with the previous period. This decline mainly comes from three aspects. The scale effect and technological progress lead to the decrease in the cost of individual raw materials of solar modules, the progress of solar cell module technology leads to the improvement of conversion rate, and the intensification of competition among cell module manufacturers. 5. Competition among module manufacturers has intensified, resulting in a slight excess of production capacity Domestic solar module manufacturers have not slowed down the pace of production expansion. In addition, the module packaging technology and equipment are relatively simple, with less investment, quick start-up, and low risk? It is the closest to the market, suitable for small business investment, and is a relatively labor-intensive link in the photovoltaic industry chain. Generally, there are large enterprises that are ahead of the solar cell market. They are also equipped with component packaging production lines. As the current component packaging segment often starts to expand, the supply of the component segment will remain stable in the short term. Company: Shanghai CHZ Changhui Lighting Technology Co., Ltd. Website: www.chz-lighting.com